Over the past 3 years, the GLP-1 drug class has revolutionized how obesity is managed, and no other therapeutic category has made such a profound impact in that short period of time. Andy Hsieh, Ph.D., partner, explores how recent scientific advances created optimism that there will be more novel drug candidates, potentially generating a wave of new therapies that could help millions of patients around the world.
Video Transcript
Looking back over the past 3 years, the GLP-1 drug class has revolutionized how obesity is managed and no other therapeutic category has made such a profound impact in a short period of time. Commercially, the GLP-1s have enjoyed unprecedented success. Semaglutide, which is a GLP-1 receptor agonist, recognized roughly $4.5 billion in sales last year and tirzepatide, a dual agonist targeting both GLP-1 and GIP, in its first quarter of launch, reported sales of over $500 million. We believe with increasing medical utility—building on the foundation of type 2 diabetes and obesity to extending into sleep apnea, kidney function preservation, and reduced cardiovascular risks—the GLP-1 class could reach over $100 billion in sales.
Despite the resounding success already, looking forward, we believe the field will continue to produce scientific breakthroughs. First, in the lengthening of treatment intervals from weekly dosing to monthly or potentially quarterly dosing. This not only offers convenience for patients but also alleviates supply constraints we‘ve seen. On the flip side, oral small molecules such as orforglipron could expand options for patients who would prefer an injection-free regimen while establishing a daily routine.
Second, drug developers could uncover more biological pathways relevant for obesity. Currently, we have GLP-1 receptor agonists such as semaglutide, that showed weight loss in the range of 15%, and tirzepatide, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist that demonstrated roughly 20% weight loss. Both of these are approved and on the market. There is also an investigational drug that combines a third receptor, glucagon. This drug is called retatrutide, but is commonly referred to as “triple G,” and offers 25% weight loss.
Third, the focus could shift from reduced caloric intake to increased energy expenditure. This approach could counter some of the weight rebound after patients stop taking the drug and thereby provide a more sustained obesity management solution.
Taken together, while we’ve made great strides in combating the obesity epidemic through scientific advances, I am optimistic that there will likely be more exciting new datasets generated from novel drug candidates, and millions of patients around the globe could benefit from a wave of new therapies.